Why the Alleged Poisoning of Kadyrov is a Very Big Deal

 



    Head of the Chechen Republic - Razman Kadyrov is allegedly under intensive therapy due to kidkney failure caused by the poisoning. Although reports state that he has summoned an experienced nephrologist from the UAE for his treatment after refusing to summon a Russian doctor for his treatment, stating "He does not trust Russian doctors". 

Considering that this news might be true, this article will analyze why such an event is a bigger deal than it is made out to be, especially if Kadyrov dies. 
Because in the end, WHO WILL TAKE THE BLAME? 

And this time, we are not talking about the assassination of any oligarch, we are talking about an alleged assassination of the Head of State of Chechnya. 

We all know how Kadyrov's dad fought through two Chechen wars as the former head of the state to make sure that this region would not fall under Russian rule. Although Russia eventually took control of the region and installed Kadyrov as head, many Chechens still resent Russia and consider Kadyrov as a divinity in Chechnya who must not be interfered with by any Russian politician. 

In my opinion, 
Either of these Four main parties will stand to be blamed by this incident:
  • The Kremlin
  • The Ukrainian Secret Services (SBU)
  • Western Secret Service 
Let's consider what each scenario could lead to if any of these parties were to take the blame. 

The Kremlin: Large protests would erupt in Chechnya as national support for Kadyrov would become overconcerned about Russia's meddling in regional affairs and assassinating its beloved head of state. Chechnyan national support could call for independence if the movement becomes large enough. If this were to happen, Moscow would be not only forced to be mocing part of its already-scarce forces throughout Russia into the region to abate opposition in the region, but also prepare for Checnyan military groups to start rebelling not only in Chechnya, but also on the front lines in Ukraine. Nonetheless, due to the far-reaching abilities of Russian propraganda to spin the story through medias, I think this is the least likely probability scenario of happening. 

The  Ukrainian Secret Services (SBU): In my opinion, this is the most likely probability of happening as Russian medias decide to blame the Ukrainians for this. This would lead to an increasing resentment for the Ukrainians in Chechnya, which will lead more Chechnyans to enlist into the Russian army to support the fight in Ukraine. This would lead to some type of military escalation in the Ukrainian conflict. 

Western Secret Services: This has also a low probability of happening as the Chechnyan people will find it a harder possibility to believe and the Kremlin a harder news to sell. Instead, I believe Russian media will find it easier to blame it on the Ukrainians especially considering that the SBU had considered Kadyrov a close threat after had suggested to use tactical nukes in Ukraine. 

Consider, that this report is telling the truth, whatever the outcome, the allegged assassination attempt of Ramzan Kadyrov will lead to an escalation of some sort, whether nationally or internationally. 

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